The Signal and the Noise

Nate Silver in his book Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't) is a 2012 book explaining the art of using probability and stats as applied to real-world circumstances. With case studies from baseball, elections, climate change, weather forecasts and the 2008 global crash, there is something in this book for everyone. To give you a taste, here is Nate doing a short segment at the RSA:

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What is the problem with thought experiments?

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The monk problem